Backchannelmedia

Simon Applebaum

Two weeks does not a new primetime television season make. Yet two weeks into this 2008-09 TV season, it's so tempting to declare broadcast networks are back in decline mode, and so hard not to give into that temp sensation. Really, really hard.

The factors why not start with the big result of week one: ABC, CBS and NBC combined accounted for 33 percent of the average primetime viewership each night, down from 36 percent for the first week of the 2007-08 season. Think about it...for the first time ever, the three major TV networks, accountable for 90 percent of the entire viewing audience every night, week in and out, back in the early 1980s, now find themselves holding on to a third of the primetime audience available.

The full result of week one: ABC's average viewership was down 5 percent, CBS down 10 percent and NBC 21 percent. Fox viewership was up 2 percent and The CW broke even.

Don't attribute the declines solely to people turning off such new fare as Do Not Disturb (Fox--and your winner for first cancelled new series), Knight Rider (NBC) or Opportunity Knocks (ABC). Returning series, whether critics liked their season-opening episodes or not, generally dropped audience. Heroes lost 25 percent of its audience, as in 5 million plus viewers--compared to its second-season start last fall. Grey's Anatomy, Law & Order: SVU and House also fell victim to lower audience totals.

Week two looks like it will be worse. This was the week that ABC and NBC's controversial "let's do at least some of last season over" strategy kicked in, with ABC bringing back its entire Wednesday night rookie schedule (Pushing Daisies/Private Practice/Dirty Sexy Money), and NBC giving Chuck and Life a second chance. All five dramas were renewed despite low ratings that kept going lower each week. Network executives defended their call with an argument that thanks to the writer's strike, these shows didn't get a fair chance for audience sampling.

Outlook after last week: those executives could soon order a diet of hollow language. ABC's audience last Wednesday night was down 40 percent--you read right, 40 percent-- from the same-night premiere last fall. Pushing Daisies, again despite critical praise, finished in fourth place among the broadcast nets in its time period with a 7 share of audience, vs. a 15 share last fall. What's more, 15 percent of the show's viewership went elsewhere in its second half-hour. Private Practice and Dirty Sexy Money worked up 8 shares (third place in both cases). At NBC, Chuck and Life were third in their Monday night time periods last week, drawing less than 7 million viewers apiece.

What's going on? The big aftermath of the writer's strike, as in people turning on and staying with new programming from cable networks, DBS, video-on-demand, Spanish-language TV and other sources when the broadcast nets couldn't deliver fresh goods. With cable networks serving up more original programming than ever this fall, permanently shaking off the notion of taking a holiday off from new content creation the last three months of any given year, it will be extremely tough for the broadcast networks to win their lost audience back. And with buzz-building programs like USA's The Starter Wife and Starz's Crash ahead, the road will stay tough.

Makes you wonder and question the gumption advertising agencies and media buyers demonstrated just a few months ago to give the broadcast networks more upfront money this season, despite the poor rating/program quality performance last season.

Oh, and two months ago in this column, I invited people to e-mail why those network (broadcast or cable) upfront allocations go up when their rating performance spirals down. Still waiting for someone to answer back. Here's your second chance to do so. Take the opportunity--I'm listening.

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Pay attention to "Race To BE," a new project supported by such heavy-hitting business players as IBM, Ernst & Young and The Kauffman Foundation. Connected to the first-ever worldwide "Global Entrepreneurship Week" taking place November 17-23, the idea is to stimulate college students and young adults into launching new ventures in film, music and fashion. Special "Race To BE" events will take place in Los Angeles Nov. 17 (film), Austin, Texas the following day (music) and New York Nov. 21 (fashion). Could this worthwhile campaign be extended to television next year and beyond? The organizers are exploring that possibility. Want to make it happen with them? Check out www.racetobeusa.com and www.unleashingideas.org, or contact PR representative Shay Pantano at (212) 886-6707/spantano@kruppnyc.com. The television medium's next quantum breakthrough could be your doing. Until the next time, stay well and stay tuned.

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Simon Applebaum is producer/host of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the weekly Internet radio program covering TV developments. The program runs Monday afternoons from 3-4 p.m. Eastern time/noon-1 p.m. Pacific time over www.nowlive.com, with replays/podcasts available at www.nowlive.com/television. Today's guests: Larry Jones, TV Land president; Mei-Ling Sze, news anchorperson at KTSF-TV, San Francisco; and Rodolfo Hecht, chairman of Bee TV. Next week's guests: Jude Wang, executive producer of Real Simple, Real Life (TLC) and Cathy Hetzel, president of Rentrak's advanced media unit.

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Have a question or comment? E-mail: simonapple04@yahoo.com