Backchannelmedia

Simon Applebaum

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts spent part of the first full week of 2008 with a keynoting turn at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. There, he declared that by the end of the year, his company would have the infrastructure in place to make anything video under the sun, from TV series to user-generated shorts, available on demand.

Project Infinity, the initiative Roberts detailed at CES that January week, is not complete as we hit the home stretch of 2008. Yes, there's still a week-and-a-half remaining to pull it off, and given the kind of sudden media news we've had lately, such as NBC's Jay Leno primetime gambit or Oprah Winfrey switching her Harpo drama ties to HBO from ABC, you never can say never about efforts like Project Infinity.

Even if Roberts and his Comcast associates premiere their bold video-on-demand infrastructure handiwork somewhat later than anticipated, that won't diminish what VOD accomplished this year. The medium grew steady, going from 30 million homes to 35 million. Comcast's monthly on-demand view total went from 250 million to more than 300 million. The nation's largest cable operator anticipates 4-5 billion total on-demand views for 2008, compared with 3 billion views last year. Most other multichannel distributors keep their VOD results private, but industry officials and experts I've met or contacted in recent weeks believe when Time Warner, Cox, Charter, FiOS TV, U-verse, other operators and the DirecTV/Dish DBS duo weigh in, the final VOD count fo4 2008 will rest between 8 and 10 billion views. Repeat: 8-10 billion.

Those 35 million households had more VOD choice than ever, plus more first-run material to see than ever. Comcast systems offer more than 10,000 selections per month, about 1,000 in high-definition format. FiOS TV just raised their VOD choices bar to 14,000 from 11,000, also with about 1,000 HD titles. Part of the expanding lineup comes from the belief among online video makers (themselves involved in a Web content submarketplace that exploded this year) that VOD represents a good alternative distribution source. From that belief came simultaneous Web/VOD presentation of Gemini Division (from NBC Universal) starring Rosario Dawson; The WB.com and various FearNet originals. Much more ahead on this front in 2009.

Another advance: NBC-supplied coverage of the Summer Olympics from Beijing pulled in millions of on-demand views this summer, despite atrocious marketing and promotional efforts by both NBC and cable operators.

There's still a lot for VOD providers to deal with en route to realizing their medium's full potential beyond expanding infrastructure. One is coming up with a viable, accurate ratings system that doesn't invade customer privacy. Another is making a stronger case for advertisers to participate in the medium, showing how their precious investments in an uncertain economic landscape can work to the max. Then there's generating an ecosystem of quality first-run content suppliers creating VOD-exclusive signature programs, while expanding the assortment of original on-demand services already in the trenches (Exercise TV, Expo TV, PBS Kids Sprout, etc.) On those heels: making VOD another window for all current broadcast network, local station and syndicated content. Still waiting for the day when you can view same-day/night Wheel Of Fortune, Judge Judy or Oprah episodes on-demand.

A year from now, we'll see how much progress gets made on each of these issues. The sooner the progress comes, the sooner we know how big a medium VOD will be.

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Bob Ponce, head of R5 Development Group in New York, has a reaction to our "Broadcast Waterloo" column last week. "I feel (NBC Universal president/CEO) Jeff Zucker's pain," he e-mails, " but he has to attribute some of it to an incredibly bad primetime lineup. Broadcast, cable or syndication, the series model only works if it's something people want to see."

Next week, the top 2009 TV issues to watch. Until the next time, stay well, stay tuned and enjoy your holiday time with joy and peace.

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Simon Applebaum is producer/host of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the weekly Internet radio program covering TV developments and issues. The program runs over www.nowlive.com Monday afternoons from 3-4 p.m. Eastern time/noon-1 p.m. Pacific time. Today's guests: Desmond Gumbs, creator/executive producer of Hacienda Heights, the new daytime drama on KRON-TV, San Francisco, and Ned Sherman, founder/editor of Digital Media Wire. Next week's guest: Chris Quinn, founder/general manager, Net (new New York area religious channel).

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